"The limited volume of trade between Tunisia and Niger and Tunisia's reduced economic presence in Gabon suggest that the direct economic impact of the coups in these two African countries remains limited," says the Arab Institute of Business Managers (IACE). "The coup d'état in Niger and the military coup in Gabon cannot have a direct impact on Tunisia because these countries are neither neighbours nor major economic partners," the IACE stressed in a document entitled "Coups d'état in Niger and Gabon: Implications for Tunisia?" The authors of the document argue that the economic impact of the coup in Niger will be negligible in the short term. However, economic projections at both the bilateral and regional levels indicate real development potential. Indeed, Niger is Tunisia's 16th African trading partner, accounting for less than 1% of its exports to the continent. Despite the existence of a regular Tunisair flight between Tunis and Niamey since 2016 and the establishment of preferential trade relations since 1982, including a 50% reduction in customs duties, economic relations remain relatively modest. Tunisia fails to establish itself as Niger's preferred partner Tunisia has struggled to establish itself as a preferred partner for Niger, despite the country's considerable economic potential (growth has been between 7% and 9% for several years). It has limited itself to a few investments, driven by a private sector that lacks competitiveness in one of the continent's most sought-after regions. "Opportunities exist in Niger, particularly in the agricultural and mining sectors, which are the pillars of the Nigerien economy. There are also prospects in value-added services, where Tunisia has some expertise," the document says. According to the IACE, Tunisia would benefit from consolidating its efforts around a public-private partnership aimed at exploring the Nigerien market and forging new economic synergies in promising sectors. Political crises that could put regional projects on hold On the regional front, the Trans-Saharan Highway (TSH), a land corridor linking Nigeria, Niger, Mali, Chad, Algeria and Tunisia (comprising three coastal and three landlocked countries), has significant commercial and economic potential, as highlighted in the document. Furthermore, the document asserts that this ambitious project, covering a population of more than 400 million people in the Maghreb and Sahel regions, will foster economic integration among the six countries along the TSH and provide access to Mediterranean ports for 16 West African countries. "It will thus ensure the connectivity of numerous countries, including Niger, and facilitate the flow of goods throughout the zone," the document says. In addition to facilitating trade, the document stresses that this road will open up opportunities for energy connections and the development of digital networks between the Sahel, the Maghreb and Europe, particularly with the Trans-Saharan Optical Fibre Backbone (TSB) project, which aims to connect Niger, Algeria, Nigeria and Chad through a 1,510km fibre-optic infrastructure. "The potential benefits for Tunisia are considerable, especially in view of the establishment of the electrical interconnection between Tunisia and Southern Europe (ELMED) and the integration into the European high-speed broadband network MEDUSA, which connects 10 Mediterranean countries via a submarine cable," the IACE document stresses. As for the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project between Nigeria and Algeria, the institute also sees it as another structurally significant undertaking, brimming with economic potential. "This axis, stretching over 4,000 kilometres, will allow the transit of Nigerian gas through Algeria, with the possibility for Algeria to then transport the gas via Transmed, linking the country to Italy via Tunisia," the authors point out. With regard to Gabon, the authors of the document believe that the economic impact of the recent political changes on Tunisia is negligible, given the emerging bilateral cooperation with this country. Finally, the document expresses concern that, given the evolving security situation on the ground, these projects, conceived by their architects as catalysts for growth and stability, could be suspended or even jeopardised.

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse