In spite of a wave of optimism after four years into the COVID-19 pandemic, managers of enterprises members of the Tunisian-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (AHK Tunisia) laid emphasis on a string of crises and difficulties which are worsening the situation and blurring visibility. This is the main finding of a survey titled the Situation and Prospects of Member Enterprises in Tunisia 2022/2024.
This annual survey polled over 150 AHK member enterprises, branches and subsidiaries last April; it was presented Friday by AHK President Ibrahim Debache and Director General Jörn Bousselmi.
The survey demonstrated optimism as 82% of enterprises recovered their pre-crisis activity level, while 18% reported a decline of over 5% compared to the pre-crisis levels.
The development outlook for polled businesses is satisfactory for 49% and quite good for 45%; prospects are gloomy for 6%.
More than 75% of enterprises forecast stability (39%) or growth (38%) of their investments, the AHK said.
Most of these enterprises expect they would keep the same number of staff in 2023, while 30% intend to increase the number of employees.
Figures show 42% of polled German enterprises have the intention to beef up their staff.
//Uncertainty about economic policy, biggest hazard//
For these enterprises, the accumulation of crises makes the future uncertain and shows the seriousness of challenges.
The majority of Tunisian and German enterprises said they had difficulties with Tunisian authorities, mainly the administration and customs. Likewise, uncertainty about economic policy was seen as the biggest hazard for surveyed businesses .
The 2021 survey revealed that Tunisian customs and the Central Bank of Tunisia were on the top of the list of authorities when it comes to challenges facing member enterprises.
The majority of businesses said to be pessimistic about inflation and expect a depreciation of the Tunisian dinar next year.
Three main factors are seen as hazardous to economic development: socio-political stability, energy prices and the prices of raw materials.
Over 70% of German businesses think socio-political instability may slow down economic development considerably.
// Tunisian destination still attractive//
For the AHK, there are still opportunities that can be tapped into as Tunisia has several assets that would foster its economic recovery. For more than 70% of polled businesses, geographic proximity to Europe is a real opportunity.
Qualified labour and high-quality production and services at very competitive prices are an additional asset.
There are nearly 280 German enterprises operating in Tunisia and employing more than 90,000 people.
AHK has 950 member entreprises, including 155 which responded to the poll. 43% of respondents operate in the sector of industry, 22% in distribution and 35% in services.
// Fallouts from the war in Ukraine//
The war in Ukraine took its toll on business activities, 53% of respondents said. Over 60% of polled businesses said they would continue to feel the negative impact of the conflict over the next two years.
The war would generate higher energy and raw material costs for 29.75% of pollees, disruption in supply chains for 20.25%, a shortage in raw materials and input for 15.19% and a drop in orders and production for 13.29% for polled enterprises.
Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse