The coups d'état in Niger and Gabon could aggravate migration pressures and the influx of sub-Saharan nationals into Tunisia, even though the two countries do not share borders, according to the Arab Institute of Business Managers (French: IACE). "Tunisia is currently the shortest gateway to the Mediterranean and Europe. Moreover, the country, which is still struggling to manage the flow of thousands of migrants on its territory, could face renewed migratory pressure on its borders," the IACE said in a document entitled "Coups d'État in Niger and Gabon: What implications for Tunisia?" This new pressure could generate mixed flows of refugees and migrants, as well as risks related to terrorism or various illegal activities, such as human trafficking or illegal cross-border smuggling, the IACE warned. In addition to the direct implications of an exceptional movement of migrants towards Tunisia, particularly in terms of capacity to manage the flows, Tunisia would also face renewed pressure from its European partners to curb crossings into the Mediterranean from Tunisian shores. This is in line with the commitments made in the July 16, 2023 Memorandum of Understanding between Tunisia and the EU. Given its central location in the Sahel region, Niger is one of the main transit points on the migratory route from West and Central Africa to North Africa, in particular Libya and Tunisia, and ultimately the Mediterranean, the document says. It adds that in recent years this African country has become a destination for both the settlement and repatriation of migrants. Since the coup, more than 7,000 migrants have been stranded in Niger, unable to return to their countries of origin, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). The instability caused by the coup, the deterioration of socio-economic conditions due to economic sanctions against the military regime in Niger and the possibility of military intervention are all factors that could increase population movements and exacerbate internal and cross-border displacement in Niger. The IACE document also points out that, according to the IOM, the population influx has already increased by 20% in the first quarter of 2023.

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse