Climate change has increased the rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, meteorologists and climatologists claim. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), climate change has made weather conditions 20-50% more intense. In Libya, a North African country neighbouring Tunisia, the stormy winds and torrential rain triggered by hurricane "Daniel" have left a heavy toll of more than 5,000 dead (up to September 12, 2023) and thousands missing. "It is unlikely that a tropical storm similar to the one that hit Libya will affect Tunisia in the short to medium term," reassured Tunisian climatologist Zouhaier Hlaoui on Wednesday, referring to climate studies conducted in Tunisia. "This phenomenon, which is part of a Mediterranean aerological system, is unlikely to affect the Tunisian regions, as it is characterised by a movement from west to east, and given that it has reached the Libyan and Egyptian coasts, it is no longer possible that it will return towards the Tunisian coasts, especially as it has weakened in recent days," the climatologist stated to TAP. However, during the intervening periods (between the autumn and spring seasons), there is likely to be "the phenomenon of a return from the east," which generates a number of disturbances, notably heavy rainfall, causing floods, following the example of the floods recorded in Tunisia in 1969 and 1990," added Hlaoui. "The increased frequency of storms such as the one that hit Libya in recent days, also known as "Medicane," or Mediterranean subtropical cyclone, is a Mediterranean low-pressure system with the properties of an intertropical cyclone and a mid-latitude frontal depression," he explained. "this very tightly packed storm, which has a spiral cloud structure and generates strong winds and torrential rain, is one of the main manifestations of climate change," he considered. Hlaoui called on the Tunisian authorities to do more, like all the countries of the world, to contribute to the global effort to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions responsible for global warming, in order to reduce the devastation caused by these phenomena, which are becoming increasingly intense and extreme as a result of climate change. "Although it is responsible for only 0.07% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Tunisia is bearing the full brunt of the impacts of climate change, which often takes the form of successive droughts of increasing duration and intensity, extreme phenomena such as heavy rainfall and frequent and intense heat waves. The exceptional heat waves recorded in July and August 2023 are the most frequent example," he pointed out. The climatologist and author of the book "Climat et bioclimat de la Tunisie" (Climate and bioclimate of Tunisia) indicated that these are not just immediate repercussions, such as the devastating floods in Libya, but also new problems that will arise in the near future, such as "disturbances to the water balance and the biological regime of animal and plant species in our region." He called for the implementation of strategies and measures to adapt to the effects of climate change, and for the mobilisation of scientific research and substantial funding to achieve this. On a global scale, the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed to the link between the increase and intensification of extreme weather events and climate change. According to these UN climate experts, each additional degree of warming is equivalent to a 7% increase in rainfall during storms and thunderstorms. Cyclone Daniel, which hit Libya, is the fifth tropical cyclone, the fourth tropical storm, the second major hurricane and the first category 4 hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse